SEVERE WEATHER LITERATURE

ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/LID

• A Synoptic Climatology of the Elevated Mixed-Layer Inversion over the Southern Great Plains in Spring. Part I: Structure, Dynamics, and Seasonal Evolution
• A Synoptic Climatology of the Elevated Mixed-Layer Inversion over the Southern Great Plains in Spring. Part II: Structure, Dynamics, and Seasonal Evolution
• A Synoptic Climatology of the Elevated Mixed-Layer Inversion over the Southern Great Plains in Spring. Part III: Relationship to Severe-Storms Climatology
• Elevated Mixed Layers in the Regional Severe Storm Environment: Conceptual Model and Case Studies
• Transverse Ageostrophic Circulations Associated with Elevated Mixed Layers
• Some Effects of Surface Heating and Topography on the Regional Severe Storm Environment. Part I: Three-Dimensional Simulations
• A Statistical Evaluation of Lid Strength on Deep Convection 
• Sensitivity of the Great Plains Severe-Storm Environment to Soil-Moisture Distribution
• Evidence for the Role of the Lid and Underunning in an Outbreak of Tornadic Thunderstorms
• Atmospheric Controls on Soil Moisture–Boundary Layer Interactions. Part II: Feedbacks within the Continental United States
• Elevated Residual Layers and Their Influence on Surface Boundary-Layer Evolution
• Some Effects of Surface Heating and Topography on the Regional Severe Storm Environment. Part II: Two-Dimensional Idealized Experiments
• The Interactive Role of Subsynoptic Scale Jet Streak and Planetary Boundary Layer Processes in Organizing an Isolated Convective Complex
• The Impact on Simulated Storm Structure and Intensity of Variations in the Mixed Layer and Moist Layer Depths
• The Sensitivity of Convective Initiation to the Lapse Rate of the Active Cloud-Bearing Layer

TORNADOES

• Non-supercell Tornadoes
• The Occurrence of Tornadoes in Supercells Interacting with Boundaries during VORTEX-95
• Tornadogenesis Resulting from the Transport of Circulation by a Downdraft: Idealized Numerical Simulations
• Hook Echoes and Rear-Flank Downdrafts: A Review
• A Preliminary Survey of Rear-Flank Descending Reflectivity Cores in Supercell Storms
• Vortex Lines within Low-Level Mesocyclones Obtained from Pseudo-Dual-Doppler Radar Observations
• Buoyancy and Shear Characteristics of Hurricane-Tornado Environments
• Storm Prediction Center Forecasting Issues Related to the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak
• Descending Reflectivity Cores in Supercell Thunderstorms Observed by Mobile Radars and in a High-Resolution Numerical Simulation

ANALYSIS PROCESS AND SURFACE ANALYSIS

• Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process?
• A Case for Detailed Surface Analysis

DRYLINE

• Prefrontal Wind-Shift Lines in the Plains of the United States
• A Climatology of Springtime Dryline Position in the U.S. Great Plains Region
• The Synoptic Regulation of Dryline Intensity
• Convective Initiation at the Dryline: A Modeling Study
• The Influence of Topography and Lower-Tropospheric Winds on Dryline Morphology
• Severe Thunderstorm Development in Relation to Along-Dryline Variability: A Case Study
• A Modeling Study of the Dryline
• The Suppression of Deep Moist Convection near the Southern Great Plains Dryline
• An Observational Study of the Dryline
• A Three-Dimensional Numerical Simulation of a Great Plains Dryline
• A Mixed-Layer Model of the Diurnal Dryline
• Dryline Bulge Evolution in a Two-Dimensional Mixed-Layer Model

CAPE/SHEAR COMPUTATION

• The Effect of Neglecting the Virtual Temperature Correction on CAPE Calculations
• Assessing the Vertical Distribution of Convective Available Potential Energy
• Comparison between Observed Convective Cloud-Base Heights and Lifting Condensation Level for Two Different Lifted Parcels
• The Importance of Parcel Choice and the Measure of Vertical Wind Shear in Evaluating the Convective Environment

PROBABILITY FORECASTING

• Probabilities, Odds, and Forecasts of Rare Events
• Probabilistic Forecasting - A Primer

GENERAL SEVERE STORM FORECASTING CONCEPTS

• Severe Local Storms Forecasting

SUPERCELL STORMS

• The Operational Recognition of Supercell Thunderstorm Environments and Storm Structures
• An Observational Examination of Long-Lived Supercells. Part I: Characteristics, Evolution, and Demise
• An Observational Examination of Long-Lived Supercells. Part II: Environmental Conditions and Forecasting
• Predicting Supercell Motion Using a New Hodograph Technique
• Streamwise Vorticity: The Origin of Updraft Rotation in Supercell Storms
• Modes of Isolated, Severe Convective Storm Formation along the Dryline
• On the Rotation and Propagation of Simulated Supercell Thunderstorms
• The Influence of Helicity on Numerically Simulated Convective Storms
• Variations in Supercell Morphology. Part I: Observations of the Role of Upper-Level Storm-Relative Flow
• Effective Storm-Relative Helicity and Bulk Shear in Supercell Thunderstorm Environments
• The Sensitivity of Simulated Supercell Structure and Intensity to Variations in the Shapes of Environmental Buoyancy and Shear Profiles
• The Dependence of Numerically Simulated Convective Storms on Vertical Wind Shear and Buoyancy
• The Dependence of Numerically Simulated Cyclic Mesocyclogenesis upon Environmental Vertical Wind Shear
• The Use of Vertical Wind Shear versus Helicity in Interpreting Supercell Dynamics

BOUNDARIES AND MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT VARIABILITY

• Variability of Storm-Relative Helicity during VORTEX
• A Study of Tornadic Thunderstorm Interactions with Thermal Boundaries
• The Association of Significant Tornadoes with a Baroclinic Boundary on 2 June 1995
• Recognition of Negative Mesoscale Factors for Severe-Weather Potential: A Case Study

TORNADO AND SEVERE STORMS CLIMATOLOGY

• Climatological Estimates of Local Daily Tornado Probability for the United States
• Evolution of the U.S. Tornado Database: 1954–2003
• Climatological Estimates of Daily Local Nontornadic Severe Thunderstorm Probability for the United States
• Small Sample Size and Data Quality Issues Illustrated Using Tornado Occurrence Data
• Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes, 1950–2007

THUNDERSTORM CLIMATOLOGY

• The Diurnal Variation of Thunderstorm Activity in the United States
• Rainfall Occurrence in the U.S. Warm Season: The Diurnal Cycle
• Convective Episodes in the East-Central United States
• Cloud-to-Ground Lightning in the United States: NLDN Results in the First Decade, 1989–98

ENVIRONMENT-STORM RELATIONSHIP

• A Baseline Climatology of Sounding-Derived Supercell and Tornado Forecast Parameters
• Refined Supercell and Tornado Forecast Parameters
• Estimations of CIN and LFC Associated with Tornadic and Nontornadic Supercells
• Close Proximity Soundings within Supercell Environments Obtained from the Rapid Update Cycle
• Tornadoes in Environments with Small Helicity and/or High LCL Heights
• Effective Storm-Relative Helicity and Bulk Shear in Supercell Thunderstorm Environments
• An Update to the Supercell Composite and Significant Tornado Parameters
• Tornadoes with Cold Core 500-mb Lows
• Severe Convective Wind Environments
• An Overview of Environmental Conditions and Forecast Implications of the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak
• Climatology of Storm Reports Relative to Upper-Level Jet Streaks
• Environmental Ingredients for Supercells and Tornadoes within Hurricane Ivan

COOL SEASON SEVERE STORMS

• Peninsular Florida Tornado Outbreaks
• Mesoscale Aspects of the Rapid Intensification of a Tornadic Convective Line across Central Florida: 22–23 February 1998
• Cool Season Significant (F2-F5) Tornadoes in the Gulf Coast States
• Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Production in Strongly Forced, Low-Instability Convective Lines Associated with Damaging Wind
• Tornadoes from Squall Lines and Bow Echoes. Part I: Climatological Distribution
• On the Incidence of Tornadoes in California
• An Analysis of a Mesocyclone–Induced Tornado Occurrence in Northern California
• Convective and Rotational Parameters Associated with Three Tornado Episodes in Northern and Central California

COOL SEASON RETURN FLOW FROM GULF OF MEXICO

• Autumnal Return of Tropical Air to the Gulf of Mexico's Coastal Plain
• Return Flow in the Gulf of Mexico. Part I: A Classificatory Approach with a Global Historical Perspective
• Return Flow in the Gulf of Mexico. Part II: Variability in Return-Flow Thermodynamics Inferred from Trajectories over the Gulf
• Layered Precipitable Water from the Infrared VAS Sounder during a Return-Flow Event over the Gulf of Mexico

ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS

• A Five-Year Climatology of Elevated Severe Convective Storms in the United States East of the Rocky Mountains
• An Elevated Supercell with Damaging Wind from the Morning of 12 March 2006

MCS TYPES, MAINTENANCE, AND MOTION

• Organizational Modes of Midlatitude Mesoscale Convective Systems
• Predicting the Movement of Mesoscale Convective Complexes
• Cold Pools and MCS Propagation: Forecasting the Motion of Downwind-Developing MCSs
• Forecasting the Maintenance of Quasi-Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems
• The Role of Momentum Transport in the Motion of a Quasi-Idealized Mesoscale Convective System

CONVECTIVE MODE-ENVIRONMENT INTERACTIONS

• The Interaction of Numerically Simulated Supercells Initiated along Lines
• Forecasting Short Term Convective Mode and Evolution for Severe Storms Initiated along Synoptic Boundaries
• Synoptic Environments and Convective Modes Associated with Significant Tornadoes in the Contiguous United States
• The Climatology, Convective Mode, and Mesoscale Environment of Cool Season Severe Thunderstorms in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, 1995-2006

WARM SEASON NORTHWEST FLOW SEVERE STORMS

• A Synoptic Climatology of Northwest Flow Severe Weather Outbreaks. Part I: Nature and Significance
• A Synoptic Climatology of Northwest-Flow Severe Weather Outbreaks. Part II: Meteorological Parameters and Synoptic Patterns

DERECHOS AND BOW ECHOES

• Derechos: Widespread Convectively Induced Windstorms
• Meteorological Conditions Associated with Bow Echo Development in Convective Storms
• A 4-Yr Climatology of Cold-Season Bow Echoes over the Continental United States
• Examination of Derecho Environments Using Proximity Soundings
• An Observational Study of Derecho-Producing Convective Systems
• Interpreting the Climatology of Derechos
• Effects of Upper-Level Shear on the Structure and Maintenance of Strong Quasi-Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems
• Discrimination of Mesoscale Convective System Environments Using Sounding Observations
• A Preliminary Study of Severe Wind-Producing MCSs in Environments of Limited Moisture

ENSEMBLE PREDICTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE STORMS

• The Evolution of Multi-Scale Ensemble Guidance in the Prediction of Convective and Severe Convective Storms at the Storm Prediction Center
• A Physically Based Parameter for Lightning Prediction and its Calibration in Ensemble Forecasts
• Utility of Short-range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Guidance for Forecasting the Development of Severe Convection

NWP APPLICATIONS FOR CONVECTIVE FORECASTING

• Properties of the Convection Scheme in NCEP's Eta Model that Affect Forecast Sounding Interpretation
• Examination of Convection-Allowing Configurations of the WRF Model for the Prediction of Severe Convective Weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004
• Some Practical Considerations Regarding Horizontal Resolution in the First Generation of Operational Convection-Allowing NWP
• Experiences with 0–36-h Explicit Convective Forecasts with the WRF-ARW Model
• Complementary Use of Short-range Ensemble and 4.5 KM WRF-NMM Model Guidance for Severe Weather Forecasting at the Storm Prediction Center
• Next-Day Convection-Allowing WRF Model Guidance: A Second Look at 2-km versus 4-km Grid Spacing

HAIL FORECASTING

• Evaluation of Alberta Hail Growth Model Using Severe Hail Proximity Soundings from the United States
• Modeling Maximum Hail Size in Alberta Thunderstorms
• Spatial Forecasts of Maximum Hail Size Using Prognostic Model Soundings and HAILCAST

NORTHEAST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES

• The Influence of Terrain on the Severe Weather Distribution across Interior Eastern New York and Western New England
• A Multiscale Examination of the 31 May 1998 Mechanicville, New York, Tornado
• Supercell Tornadogenesis over Complex Terrain: The Great Barrington, Massachusetts, Tornado on 29 May 1995

WESTERN US WARM SEASON SEVERE

• Synoptic-Scale Environments Associated with High Plains Severe Thunderstorms
• Forecasting Dry Microburst Activity over the High Plains
• Non-supercell Tornadoes
• Forecasting Implications of the 26 July 1985 Northeastern Colorado Tornadic Thunderstorm Case

SOUTHWEST MONSOON

• The Mexican Monsoon
• Large-Scale Patterns Associated with Severe Summertime Thunderstorms over Central Arizona
• Summertime Surges over the Gulf of California: Aspects of Their Climatology, Mean Structure, and Evolution from Radiosonde, NCEP Reanalysis, and Rainfall Data
• The Relationship between Tropical Easterly Waves and Surges over the Gulf of California during the North American Monsoon

FLASH FLOODS AND HEAVY RAINFALL

• Some Meteorological Characteristics of Significant Tornado Events Occurring in Proximity to Flash Flooding
• Multiscale Overview of a Violent Tornado Outbreak with Attendant Flash Flooding
• Some Meteorological Characteristics of Significant Tornado Events Occurring in Proximity to Flash Flooding
• Synoptic Weather Patterns Associated with the Milwaukee, Wisconsin Flash Flood of 6 August 1986
• The Minneapolis Flash Flood: Meteorological Analysis and Operational Response
• The Central Kansas Flash Floods of June 1981
• Meteorological Characteristics of Flash Flood Events over the Western United States
• The Challenge of Forecasting Heavy Rain and Flooding throughout the Eastern Region of the National Weather Service. Part II: Forecast Techniques and Applications
• Flash Flood Forecasting: An Ingredients-Based Methodology
• Catastrophic Rainfall and Flooding in Texas
• Some Common Ingredients for Heavy Orographic Rainfall
• The Hydrometeorological Environment of Extreme Rainstorms in the Southern Plains of the United States
• A Study of Heavy Rainfall Events during the Great Midwest Flood of 1993
• Forecasting Techniques Utilized by the Forecast Branch of the National Meteorological Center During a Major Convective Rainfall Event
• Organization and Environmental Properties of Extreme-Rain-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems
• Quasi-Stationary, Extreme-Rain-Producing Convective Systems Associated with Midlevel Cyclonic Circulations
• Heavy Precipitation Associated with Southern Appalachian Cold-Air Damming and Carolina Coastal Frontogenesis in Advance of Weak Landfalling Tropical Storm Marco (1990)

LAKE EFFECT SNOW

• The Lake Effect of the Great Salt Lake: Overview and Forecast Problems
• Operational Forecasting of Lake Effect Snowfall in Western and Central New York
• Mesoscale Model Simulation of the 4–5 January 1995 Lake-Effect Snowstorm
• Winter Weather Forecasting throughout the Eastern United States. Part IV: Lake Effect Snow
• Numerical Simulation of the Airflow over Lake Michigan for a Major Lake-Effect Snow Event
• Multiscale Analysis of the 7 December 1998 Great Salt Lake–Effect Snowstorm
• Diagnostic and Sensitivity Studies of the 7 December 1998 Great Salt Lake–Effect Snowstorm
• One Hundred Inches in One Hundred Hours: Evolution of a Wasatch Mountain Winter Storm Cycle

TERRAIN INTERACTION AND SNOW

• Synoptic Climatological Analyses of Extreme Snowfalls in the Sierra Nevada
• Contrasting Meteorological Conditions Associated with Winter Storms at Denver and Colorado Springs
• A Rocky Mountain Storm. Part I: The Blizzard—Kinematic Evolution and the Potential for High-Resolution Numerical Forecasting of Snowfall
• Winter Weather Forecasting throughout the Eastern United States. Part III: The Effects of Topography and the Variability of Winter Weather in the Carolinas and Virginia
• Cold Air Damming by the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies and its Relationship to Locally Heavy Snows

SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL

• Synoptic-Scale Features Common to Heavy Snowstorms in the Southeast United States
• Mesoscale Band Formation in Three Major Northeastern United States Snowstorms
• The Interaction of Jet Streak Circulations during Heavy Snow Events along the East Coast of the United States
• Use of Enhanced IR/Visible Satellite Imagery to Determine Heavy Snow Areas
• The Structure and Evolution of a Continental Winter Cyclone. Part II: Frontal Forcing of an Extreme Snow Event
• A Comparison of Two Banded, Heavy Snowstorms with Very Different Synoptic Settings
• The Estimation of Snowfall Rate Using Visibility
• A Process-Oriented Methodology Toward Understanding the Organization of an Extensive Mesoscale Snowband: A Diagnostic Case Study of 4–5 December 1999
• An Unexpectedly Heavy and Complex Snowfall Event across the Southern Appalachian Region
• A Forecast Strategy for Anticipating Cold Season Mesoscale Band Formation within Eastern U.S. Cyclones
• Evaluation and Application of Conditional Symmetric Instability, Equivalent Potential Vorticity, and Frontogenetic Forcing in an Operational Forecast Environment
• The Role of Frontogenetical Forcing and Conditional Symmetric Instability in the Midwest Snowstorm of 30–31 January 1982
• Correlations between Analyses and Forecasts of Banded Heavy Snow Ingredients and Observed Snowfall

PRECIP TYPE FORECASTING/FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET

• An Overview of Precipitation Type Forecasting Using NAM and SREF Data
• The Objective Use of Upper Air Soundings to Specify Precipitation Type
• Precipitation Types in the Transition Region of Winter Storms
• Regional and Local Influences on Freezing Drizzle, Freezing Rain,and Ice Pellet Events
• Synoptic and Mesoscale Structure of a Severe Freezing Rain Event: The St. Valentine's Day Ice Storm
• Freezing Rain: An Observational and Theoretical Study
• Local and Synoptic Environments Associated with Freezing Rain in the Contiguous United States

FIRE WEATHER

• The Evaluation of Idaho Wildfire Growth Using the Haines Index
• Verification of Monthly Mean Forecasts for Fire Weather Elements in the Contiguous United States
• The Effect of Model Resolution in Predicting Meteorological Parameters Used in Fire Danger Rating
• Suitability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to Predict the June 2005 Fire Weather for Interior Alaska
• Medium-Range Forecasting for the Number of Daily Forest Fires
• Model-Generated Predictions of Dry Thunderstorm Potential
• Fire Detection Using GOES Rapid Scan Imagery
• An Objective Forecasting Model for the Daily Outbreak of Forest Fires Based on Meteorological Considerations
• Computing the Low-Elevation Variant of the Haines Index for Fire Weather Forecasts
• Observing Forest Fires with the GOES-8, 3.9-µm Imaging Channel

UPDATED: 05/16/2010